The Food Clock
The Conviction
Forty-seven days have passed since the strait closed. The spring planting window in the Northern Hemisphere closes in six weeks. Those two facts together determine more about your 90-day financial position than anything that happened in Islamabad.
The Strait of Hormuz carries 30 percent of globally traded fertilizer. Nitrogen fertilizer prices are up 70 percent since February 28. The FAO Chief Economist stated publicly that a disruption exceeding three months produces irreversible effects on global planting decisions. The strait crossed seven weeks of disruption on April 16.
Farmers do not get a second planting window because a ceasefire was signed. Brazil sources nearly half its fertilizer through the Gulf. Ethiopia sources almost all of its nitrogen fertilizer from Gulf producers. US Corn Belt fertilizer supply stood at 75 percent of normal in mid-March, precisely when soil preparation for corn begins. A deal signed April 22 does not change any of those numbers. The Q3 food price event is locked in. The market has priced oil. It has not priced food.
Forecasts issued in this Brief
Each one is dated and scored in public on the Forecast Ledger.
| ID | Forecast | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 002-1 | The ceasefire window extends beyond April 22 without a signed agreement. | 72 | Correct |
The rest of this issue is for Brief readers
The full issue carries the mechanism, the competing explanation, the position and the questions to ask before you act. The Sovereo Brief is $47 a month or $470 a year and includes the Decision Forecast.
Subscribe to the Brief Read on SubstackNot ready to pay? Start with the free Daily SITREP, or read a full sample issue.